Prospecting for kryptonite: the value of null results
--> This blogpost doesn't say anything new – it just uses a new analogy (at least new to me) to make a point about the value of null results from well-designed studies. I was thinking about this after reading this blogpost by Anne Scheel. Think of science like prospecting for kryptonite in an enormous desert. There's a huge amount of territory out there, and very little kryptonite. Suppose also that the fate of the human race depends crucially on finding kryptonite deposits. Most prospectors don't find kryptonite. Not finding kryptonite is disappointing: it feels like a lot of time and energy has been wasted, and the prospector leaves empty-handed. But the failure is nonetheless useful. It means that new prospectors won't waste their time looking for kryptonite in places where it doesn't exist. If, however, someone finds kryptonite, everyone gets very excited and there is a stampede to rush to the spot where it was discovered. Contemporary science works a bit ...